巴伦周刊中国有一只股票可能飙升70凤凰财经

发布时间：2020-02-03 04:50:16 阅读：次来源：盘发器厂家

继巴伦周刊9月14日刊出封面预测阿里巴巴(BABA.N)股价可能再跌50%，并引发一轮口水后，这家媒体又对中国的一只股票做出了预测。不过这次是向好的方面。

图片来源：Qilai Shen/Bloomberg

对于中国最大的房地产网站搜房控股有限公司(SouFun Holdings Ltd.)的股东来说，过去几个月并不好过。

尽管中国房地产销量强劲反弹，但搜房的股价自6月中旬来已下跌45%之多，因为中国A股大跌以及随后的中国经济增长担忧让投资者倍感不安，在美国上市的中资互联网企业股票也遭到抛售。今年搜房改变业务模式导致利润下滑也是一个原因。

不过，有迹象显示搜房股票的人气正在上升，过去五个交易日有四日上涨。野村(Nomura)分析师Jeffrey Gao是看好搜房前景的分析人士之一。他将搜房股票评级定为买进，本周将搜房目标价上调至9.85美元，比目前5.84的股价水平高出约70%。

另一个令搜房在中国互联网股票中脱颍而出的因素是：在目前的股价水平，其股息率达到6.5%左右，非常具有吸引力。

尽管其业务模式的调整是痛苦的，并且给利润带来了影响，但这可能是一个必要的举动，并且已经开始产生了回报。第二季度收入同比增速提高至25%，其中电子商务收入大幅攀升120%，足以抵消发布及市场服务收入下滑18%的影响。

摩根大通(JPMorgan)分析师Alex Yao说，搜房的电商业务在一手房销售方面的市场份额在增加，他对该股的评级为增持，目标价9.50美元。

此外中国政府的政策也为搜房提供了一定帮助。中央及地方政府持续推出的一系列旨在支撑中国房地产市场的刺激政策将令该公司受益。

本文由华尔街日报译自巴伦周刊

风险提示：本文仅作为一般财经信息供读者参考，而不应被视为个人化投资建议，亦不代表凤凰iMarkets立场。本文或其任何部分不应被视为任何买卖的邀请或诱导。凤凰iMarkets不能保证文中信息的准确性、完整性和及时性，文中的任何错误都不能成为向凤凰iMarkets提起任何申诉的基础。

文章原文

Despite a solid rebound in China’s property sales SouFun shares (ticker:SFUN) have tumbled as much as 45% since mid-June as Chinese internet stocks listed in the U.S. were jettisoned by investors alarmed by the rout of mainland China A-shares and later fears about the slowdown in the world’s second largest economy. It also didn’t help that SouFun’s business model revamp has dragged down earnings this year.

However there are signs that sentiment towards SouFun is lifting with the stock gaining in four of the past five trading sessions. Nomura’s Jeffrey Gao is one analyst who is upbeat about SouFun’s prospects. Gao who has a buy rating on the stock this week raised his target price to $9.85 which is almost 70% above the $5.84 a share at which SouFun currently trades.

Another thing that makes SouFun stand out among Chinese internet stocks: At current prices it offers a juicy dividend yield of about 6.5%.

Beijing-based SouFun operates an online property portal that’s similar to overseas peers like Zillow (ZG) or Trulia. Around half of its revenues come from charging real-estate agents fees for listing property on its website and for marketing services. The remainder of the company’s top line is mainly made up of transaction fees generated by its real estate and home furnishings e-commerce platform. As such it’s unsurprising the stock is often seen as a proxy for China’s property market.

SouFun had been a stock market darling during China’s property boom having soared 860% since the beginning of 2012 to peak at $20 two years later. However the turmoil afflicting the Chinese property market since 2014 had sent the stock reeling. While this year’s recovery in China’s housing sales has been a boon for SouFun’s business its shares have not reflected the improving data or outlook.

Sure the company’s earnings in the year’s first half aren’t a pretty sight. Net income shrank 76% year-on-year in the second quarter after having plummeted 85% the prior quarter. The main reason behind this steep drop was escalating expenses as the company started to reconfigure its business model from one focused on listing and marketing services to one driven by real estate e-commerce late last year. Operating margins had compressed to just 9.3% in the second quarter down from a plumper 43% a year ago.

While this renovation of its business model has been painful and took a toll on profits it was a likely necessary move – and one that has started to yield rewards. Top line growth had accelerated to 25% year-on-year in the second quarter - with e-commerce revenues jumping 120% and helping to more than offset an 18% drop in fees from listings and marketing services.

SouFun’s e-commerce business is also gaining market share in primary home sales notes JPMorgan analyst Alex Yao who rates the stock overweight with a target price of $9.50. This stronger-than-expected growth momentum from its business transformation has allowed SouFun to lift its revenue forecast from $808 million to $843 million which implies 20% growth year-on-year.

SouFun is also getting some help from Beijing: The continued rollout of stimulus measures by the central and local governments to support China’s property market is a boon for the company. Weekly home sales have been on the rise so far in September and easier mortgage rules as well as new launches from developers should continue to boost sales in coming months argues Barclays analyst Alvin Wong. Meanwhile online financial services in the form providing down payment or bridge loans to home buyers could emerge as a significant revenue driver in coming years notes Nomura’s Gao.

But what about those compressed profit margins? SouFun management has indicated that profitability should start to recover once market share and operations for its e-commerce platform reaches a certain scale. Gao expects the recovery to start to play out next year as a more mature business gives SouFun the clout to raise commissions and cut rebates on transactions. Investments in technology should also subside.

The potential recovery in margins could see SouFun’s profits double in 2016 from what’s expected for this year according to analysts’ consensus forecast. That would translate to a 2016 earnings multiple of about 22 times which is in line with that of other Chinese internet stocks like Baidu (BIDU). However as JP Morgan’s Yao puts it We see a clearer path to value creation in SouFun’s investments than other internet names due to a more benign competitive environment and the company’s leadership position. And until shares catch on to the improving prospects patient investors will be paid a not-too-shabby dividend while they wait.